Skip to main content

Table 7 Projected clinical outcomes and costs of the scenarios projected over 1 year and 5 years

From: Cost-comparison analysis of FIB-4, ELF and fibroscan in community pathways for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

  Scenario 1- SC Scenario 2 - FIB-4/ELF Scenario 3 - FIB-4/ TE Scenario 4 - SC + ELF Scenario 5 - SC + TE
1 year 5 years 1 year 5 years 1 year 5 years 1 Year 5 years 1 year 5 years
Total number of cirrhotics entered into specialist services (out of all cirrhotics) 1.03 (34%) 5.28 (32%) 2.19 (74%) 10.97 (66%) 2.23 (75%) 11.17 (68%) 2.34 (79%) 11.75 (71%) 2.43 (82%) 12.23 (74%)
Total number of cirrhotics not known to specialist services (out of all cirrhotics) 1.96 (66%) 11.278 (68%) 0.78 (26%) 5.53 (34%) 0.74 (25%) 5.41 (32%) 0.63 (21%) 4.73 (29%) 0.54 (18%) 4.24 (26%)
Early stage complication (stage 0/A HCC, non-bleeding varices, mild ascites etc)
(% of all complications)
Cost
0.22 (42%) £3.0 K 3.52 (39%) £31.1 K 0.31 (57%) £4.1 K 4.62 (52%) £41.2 K 0.31 (58%) £4.1 K 4.66 (52%) £41.5 K 0.32 (60%) £4.3 K 4.77 (54%) £42.6 K 0.33 (61%) £4.3 K 4.87 (55%) £43.4 K
Late stage complication (stage B-D HCC, bleeding varices, severe ascites etc)
(% of all complications)
Cost
0.32 (58%) £12.9 K 5.44 (61%) £141 K 0.23 (43%) £9.2 K 4.3 (48%) £108 K 0.23 (42%) 9.1 K 4.26 (48%) £107 K 0.22 (40%) £8.8 K 4.14 (46%) £103 K 0.21 (39%) £8.4 K 4.05 (45%) £101 K
Liver transplant
Cost
0.07 £5.9 K 1.05 £89.5 K 0.10 £7.9 K 1.16 £98.9 K 0.10 £8.0 K 1.16 £99.3 K 0.10 £8.2 K 1.17100.2 K 0.10 £8.3 K 1.18 £101 K
Mortality (%) 9.87 0.99% 28.56 2.86% 9.84 0.98% 28.18 2.82% 9.83 0.98% 28.17 2.82% 9.83 0.98% 28.13 2.81% 9.83 0.98% 28.10 2.81%
Total cost/1000 NAFLD patients 638 K 1.1 M 502 K 946 K 522 K 971 K 570 K 1.0 M 647 K 1.1 M
Cost/advanced fibrotic detected 25.7 K 49.9 K 9.0 K 19.4 K 9.1 K 19.4 K 9.5 K 19.5 K 10.4 K 20.5 K