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Table 2 Transitional probability estimates used to populate the probabilistic analytical model for the base case (annual progression rates)

From: Cost-comparison analysis of FIB-4, ELF and fibroscan in community pathways for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Parameter/ Health state Transition probability References
Population and disease characteristics
 Prevalence of advanced fibrosis in the general population 0.075 [5]
 Reduction in fibrosis progression after GP management 0.01 [22], Author assumption
 Reduction in fibrosis progression after specialist review 0.025 [22]
Mild/ No fibrosis (F0, F1, F2)
 Remain healthy 0.99 [23,24,25,26]
 Develop F3 disease 0.001 [23, 24]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.005 [25, 27, 28]
 Discharge from specialist services 0.7 Unpublished audit
Advanced fibrosis (F3)
 Remain healthy 0.95 [25, 29, 30]
 Develop F4 disease/ cirrhosis 0.04 [25, 29, 30]
 Develop HCC (without cirrhosis) 0.004 [29]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.005 [29]
Compensated cirrhosis (F4)
 Remain compensated 0.93 Calculated from other variables
 Develop varices 0.03 [31]
 Develop HCC 0.003 [32, 34,35,36,37]
 Develop other complications (inc. jaundice, ascites, HE) 0.02 [29, 31, 32]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.02 [31, 38, 39], expert opinion
BCLC Stage 0 and A HCC
 Cure (liver transplant) 0.36 [40]
 Cure (non transplant) 0.39 [40]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.25 [40]
BCLC stage B – D HCC
 Clinical stability (post TACE, RFA etc) 0.24 [41]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.76 [35]
Varices detection in surveillance programme
 Clinical stability 0.92 [42]
 Liver transplant 0.01 Expert opinion
 Mortality (all cause) 0.07 [33]
Detection of varices after emergency presentation
 Clinical stability 0.73 [43]
 Liver transplant 0.02 [42]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.25 [44]
Mild/ Moderate ‘other’ complication
 Clinical stability 0.74 [17]
 Liver transplant 0.10 [42]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.16 [17]
Severe ‘other’ complication
 Clinical stability 0.45 [17]
 Liver transplant 0.10 [42]
 Mortality (all cause) 0.45 [17]
 Severity of CLD Complication No screening Screening  
 Probability of BCLC stage 0 + A HCC 0.299 0.709 [45]
 Probability of BCLC stage B - D HCC 0.701 0.291 [45]
 Detecting varices in surveillance programme 0.0 0.60 [42]
 Detecting varices after emergency presentation 100.0 0.40 [42]
 Mild/ moderate CLD ‘other’ complication 0.527 0.622 [17, 46]
 Severe CLD ‘other’ complication 0.473 0.378 [17, 46]