Fig. 2
Area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of several factors for NAFLD incidence. Upper figure indicates ROC curve, AUC and cut-off value for each factor. Black line indicates body mass index (BMI); red line indicates systolic blood pressure (SBP); yellow line indicates fasting plasma glucose (FPG); green line indicates triglycerides (TG); and blue line indicates high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Lower figure shows results of the comparison among each factor. a Men in the past cohort. b Men in the current cohort. c Women in the past cohort. d Women in the current cohort. a AUC for BMI was 0.802 (95% CI 0.786–0.802, p < 0.001), and that of SBP, FPG, TG, and HDL cholesterol was 0.611 (0.590–0.632, p < 0.001), 0.631 (0.609–0.652, p < 0.001), 0.710 (0.691–0.728, p < 0.001), and 0.688 (0.669–0.728, p < 0.001) in men of the past cohort, respectively. Cut-off value for BMI, SBP, FPG, TG, and HDL cholesterol was 23.2 kg/m2, 116.5 mmHg, 5.3 mmol/l, 1.3 mmol/l, and 1.0 mmol/l, respectively. b AUC for BMI was 0.794 (95% CI 0.784–0.804, p < 0.001), and for SBP, FPG, TG, and HDL cholesterol was 0.608 (0.595–0.621, p < 0.001), 0.642 (0.629–0.655, p < 0.001), 0.715 (0.703–0.726, p < 0.001), and 0.726 (0.715–0.738, p < 0.001) for men in the current cohort, respectively. Cut-off value for BMI, SBP, FPG, TG, and HDL cholesterol was 23.3 kg/m2, 118.5 mmHg, 5.6 mmol/l, 0.8 mmol/l, and 1.5 mmol/l, respectively. c AUC for BMI was 0.854 (95% CI 0.831–0.877, p < 0.001), and for SBP, FPG, TG, and HDL cholesterol was 0.731 (0.697–0.765, p < 0.001), 0.723 (0.685–0.760, p < 0.001), 0.802 (0.775–0.829, p < 0.001), and 0.700 (0.664–0.735, p < 0.001) for women in the past cohort, respectively. Cut-off value for BMI, SBP, FPG, TG, or HDL cholesterol was 22.4 kg/m2, 116.0 mmHg, 5.0 mmol/l, 1.2 mmol/l, and 1.3 mmol/l, respectively. d AUC for BMI was 0.863 (95% CI 0.849–0.877, p < 0.001), and for SBP, FPG, TG, and HDL cholesterol was 0.717 (0.697–0.737, p < 0.001), 0.747 (0.728–0.766, p < 0.001 vs. BMI), 0.807 (0.789–0.824, p < 0.001), and 0.765 (0.746–0.784, p < 0.001) for women in the past cohort, respectively. Cut-off value for BMI, SBP, FPG, TG, or HDL cholesterol was 22.5 kg/m2, 113.0 mmHg, 5.3 mmol/l, 0.7 mmol/l, and 1.6 mmol/l, respectively