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Table 1 Clinical probabilities

From: An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

Clinical probabilities Base case (range) Reference
Dyspepsia composite
nsNSAIDs 12.0% (9.9%–14.0%) [32]
Celecoxib 7.8% (6.0%–9.5%) [32]
POB 21-year cumulative incidence
nsNSAIDs 15.5% (4.1%–24.8%) [16,24-29]
Celecoxib 2.1% (0.0%–6.1%) [16,24-29]
Symptomatic peptic ulcer 21-year cumulative incidence
nsNSAIDs 22.4% (10.0%–33.7%) [16,24-29]
Celecoxib 17.3% (10.0%–24.0%) [16,24-29]
PUB 21-year cumulative incidence
nsNSAIDs 34.6% (19.0%–47.3%) [16,24-29]
Celecoxib 19.0% (10.0%–27.2%) [16,24-29]
Age-related increase in PUB risk per year 4.3% (2.5%–6.1%) [18,25,27,28,71,72]
PUB risk multiplier for prior PUB event 2.7 (1.5–4.7) [18,25,28,30,31]
Hospitalization rate for POBs 90% (80%–100%) [145-150]
Mortality rate as percent of POBs 8.0% (5.0%–14.0%) [151-159]
POB with prior dyspepsia 35% (20%–50%) [42,44,45]
Ratio active ulcers and symptoms to lifetime-prevalent peptic ulcers 50% (0%–65%) See text
Ratio chronic to lifetime-prevalent nonulcer dyspepsia 55% (0%–75%) [12,33,52,55,56]
  1. nsNSAID, non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; PUB, symptomatic peptic ulcers, perforations, obstructions, bleeding ulcers; POB, perforation, obstruction, bleeding ulcer; PPI, proton pump inhibitor.