Table 1 Clinical probabilities
From: An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis
Clinical probabilities | Base case (range) | Reference |
|---|---|---|
Dyspepsia composite | ||
nsNSAIDs | 12.0% (9.9%–14.0%) | [32] |
Celecoxib | 7.8% (6.0%–9.5%) | [32] |
POB 21-year cumulative incidence | ||
nsNSAIDs | 15.5% (4.1%–24.8%) | [16,24-29] |
Celecoxib | 2.1% (0.0%–6.1%) | [16,24-29] |
Symptomatic peptic ulcer 21-year cumulative incidence | ||
nsNSAIDs | 22.4% (10.0%–33.7%) | [16,24-29] |
Celecoxib | 17.3% (10.0%–24.0%) | [16,24-29] |
PUB 21-year cumulative incidence | ||
nsNSAIDs | 34.6% (19.0%–47.3%) | [16,24-29] |
Celecoxib | 19.0% (10.0%–27.2%) | [16,24-29] |
Age-related increase in PUB risk per year | 4.3% (2.5%–6.1%) | [18,25,27,28,71,72] |
PUB risk multiplier for prior PUB event | 2.7 (1.5–4.7) | [18,25,28,30,31] |
Hospitalization rate for POBs | 90% (80%–100%) | [145-150] |
Mortality rate as percent of POBs | 8.0% (5.0%–14.0%) | [151-159] |
POB with prior dyspepsia | 35% (20%–50%) | [42,44,45] |
Ratio active ulcers and symptoms to lifetime-prevalent peptic ulcers | 50% (0%–65%) | See text |
Ratio chronic to lifetime-prevalent nonulcer dyspepsia | 55% (0%–75%) | [12,33,52,55,56] |