Table 5 BIC and AUROC at 17-year and 24-year timepoint assessing the outcome of NAFLD Fibrosis at 24 years in all participants and overweight participants (at 17-year and 24-year time point). Imputed results presented
From: Evaluating future risk of NAFLD in adolescents: a prediction and decision curve analysis
Model | Model components | 17-year model | 24-year model | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All participants (n = 3126) | Participants with a BMI > overweight BMI SDS centile (n = 1160) | All participants (n = 3126) | Participants with BMI > 25 kg/m2 (n = 1163) | ||||||
BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | ||
1. Sex | Sex | 724.3 (0) | 0.57 (0) | 354.3 (0) | 0.54 (0) | 724.3 (0) | 0.57 (0) | 313.4 (0) | 0.54 (0) |
2. BMI | Sex, BMI (log) | 710.4 (3.7) | 0.67 (0.01) | 350.0 (3.9) | 0.64 (0.02) | 725.3 (0.1) | 0.62 (0.00) | 312.4 (0.0) | 0.62 (0.00) |
3. Central adiposity | Sex, BMI (log), WCHt ratio | 713.6 (3.0) | 0.68 (0.01) | 352.6 (3.8) | 0.67 (0.02) | 730.8 (0.1) | 0.64 (0.00) | 319.5 (0.0) | 0.62 (0.00) |
4. Steatosis | Sex, BMI (log), steatosis † | 714.4 (7.4) | 0.68 (0.01) | 350.5† (7.6) | 0.67† (0.04) | 733.1 (0.1) | 0.62 (0.00) | 319.4‡ (0.0) | 0.62 ‡ (0.00) |
5. Dyslipidaemia | Sex, BMI (log), triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C | 733.5 (7.1) | 0.71 (0.02) | 364.8 (11.0) | 0.74 (0.04) | 748.8 (2.3) | 0.64 (0.01) | 333.9 (2.6) | 0.63 (0.02) |
6. Insulin resistance | Sex, BMI (log), HOMA-IR | 714.7 (702.3) | 0.68 (0.01) | 355.2 (5.0) | 0.66 (0.03) | 733.1 (0.2) | 0.62 (0.00) | 318.7 (0.7) | 0.62 (0.01) |
7. Hypertension | Sex, BMI (log), systolic BP, diastolic BP | 722.4 (4.4) | 0.68 (0.01) | 361.0 (4.8) | 0.66 (0.03) | 738.7 (0.1) | 0.63 (0.00) | 324.6 (0.1) | 0.63 (0.00) |
8.Cardiometabolic | Sex, BMI (log), triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C, HOMA-IR, systolic BP, diastolic BP | 751.4 (8.0) | 0.73 (0.02) | 379.7 (12.5) | 0.76 (0.04) | 769.9 (2.4) | 0.65 (0.01) | 351.1 (2.7) | 0.67 (0.02) |
9. Liver enzymes | Sex, BMI (log), ALT (log), AST (log), GGT (log) | 713.9 (9.3) | 0.73 (0.02) | 351.7 (10.4) | 0.74 (0.04) | 732.6 (2.7) | 0.69 (0.01) | 329.8 (1.8) | 0.63(0.01) |
10. Cardiometabolic and liver enzymes | Sex, BMI (log), WCHt ratio, triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C, HOMA-IR, systolic BP, diastolic BP, ALT (log), AST (log), GGT (log) | 752.8 (11.2) | 0.77 (0.02) | 374.0 (16.2) | 0.84 (0.03) | 776.1 (4.6) | 0.73 (0.01) | 373.4 (3.7) | 0.70 (0.02) |
11. Routine clinical measures | Sex, BMI (log), WCHt ratio, steatosis †, triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C, HOMA-IR, systolic BP, diastolic BP, ALT (log), AST (log), GGT (log) | 764.4 (10.1) | 0.78 (0.02) | 381.5 (15.5) | 0.84 (0.03) | 783.0 (4.6) | 0.73 (0.01) | 380.3 (3.8) | 0.70 (0.02) |