From: Evaluating future risk of NAFLD in adolescents: a prediction and decision curve analysis
Model | Model components | 17-year model (n = 3274) | 24-year model (n = 3274) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All participants (n = 3274) | Participants with a BMI > overweight BMI SDS centile (n = 1322) | All participants (n = 3274) | Participants with BMI > 25 kg/m2 (n = 1239) | ||||||
BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | BIC Mean (SD) | AUROC Mean (SD) | ||
1. Sex | Sex | 3322.6 (0) | 0.56 (0) | 1640.3 (0.0) | 0.54 (0.0) | 3322.6 (0) | 0.56 (0) | 1692.7 (0.0) | 0.55 (0) |
2. BMI | Sex, BMI (log) | 2830.3 (23.0) | 0.77 (0.0) | 1457.4 (22.2) | 0.74 (0.0) | 2483.3 (3.1) | 0.84 (0.00) | 1470.2 (0.0) | 0.74 (0.0) |
3. Central adiposity | Sex, BMI (log), WCHt ratio | 2849.1 (14.5) | 0.77 (0.0) | 1441.7 (17.9) | 0.75 (0.0) | 2448.6 (2.7) | 0.85 (0.00) | 1397.3 (3.6) | 0.78 (0.0) |
4. Dyslipidaemia | Sex, BMI (log), triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C | 2852.2 (24.1) | 0.77 (0.0) | 1477.4 (24.6) | 0.74 (0.0) | 2469.0 (7.1) | 0.84 (0.00) | 1463.6 (5.8) | 0.76 (0.0) |
5. Insulin resistance | Sex, BMI (log), HOMA-IR | 2799.4 (23.4) | 0.79 (0.0) | 1456.2 (22.1) | 0.74 (0.01) | 2419.2 (9.0) | 0.85 (0.00) | 1396.5(10.3) | 0.78 (0.0) |
6. Hypertension | Sex, BMI (log), systolic BP, diastolic BP | 2826.1 (22.9) | 0.77 (0.0) | 1452.7 (24.0) | 0.74 (0.01) | 2468.7 (3.1) | 0.84 (0.00) | 1463.3 (0.8) | 0.76 (0.0) |
7.Cardiometabolic | Sex, BMI (log), triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C, HOMA-IR, systolic BP, diastolic BP | 2832.9 (23.9) | 0.78 (0.0) | 1477.2 (24.8) | 0.75 (0.01) | 2418.3 (10.5) | 0.85 (0.00) | 1414.1 (9.8) | 0.79 (0.0) |
8. Liver enzymes | Sex, BMI (log), ALT (log), AST (log), GGT (log) | 2818.2 (23.9) | 0.78 (0.0) | 1466.3 (23.8) | 0.74 (0.01) | 2479.5 (6.5) | 0.84 (0.00) | 1468.5 (6.1) | 0.75 (0.0) |
9. Routine clinical measures | Sex, BMI (log), WCHt ratio, triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C, HOMA-IR, systolic BP, diastolic BP, ALT (log), AST (log), GGT (log) | 2851.9 (21.5) | 0.79 (0.0) | 1470.4 (23.9) | 0.77 (0.01) | 2421.0 (9.2) | 0.86 (0.00) | 1421.5 (10.4) | 0.80 (0.0) |