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Table 4 BIC and AUROC at 17 and 24-year timepoint assessing the outcome of NAFL at 24 years in all participants and overweight participants (at 17-year and 24-year time point). Imputed results presented

From: Evaluating future risk of NAFLD in adolescents: a prediction and decision curve analysis

Model

Model components

17-year model (n = 3274)

24-year model (n = 3274)

All participants (n = 3274)

Participants with a BMI > overweight BMI SDS centile (n = 1322)

All participants (n = 3274)

Participants with BMI > 25 kg/m2 (n = 1239)

BIC

Mean (SD)

AUROC

Mean (SD)

BIC

Mean (SD)

AUROC

Mean (SD)

BIC

Mean (SD)

AUROC

Mean (SD)

BIC

Mean (SD)

AUROC

Mean (SD)

1. Sex

Sex

3322.6 (0)

0.56 (0)

1640.3 (0.0)

0.54 (0.0)

3322.6 (0)

0.56 (0)

1692.7 (0.0)

0.55 (0)

2. BMI

Sex, BMI (log)

2830.3 (23.0)

0.77 (0.0)

1457.4 (22.2)

0.74 (0.0)

2483.3 (3.1)

0.84 (0.00)

1470.2 (0.0)

0.74 (0.0)

3. Central adiposity

Sex, BMI (log), WCHt ratio

2849.1 (14.5)

0.77 (0.0)

1441.7 (17.9)

0.75 (0.0)

2448.6 (2.7)

0.85 (0.00)

1397.3 (3.6)

0.78 (0.0)

4. Dyslipidaemia

Sex, BMI (log), triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C

2852.2 (24.1)

0.77 (0.0)

1477.4 (24.6)

0.74 (0.0)

2469.0 (7.1)

0.84 (0.00)

1463.6 (5.8)

0.76 (0.0)

5. Insulin resistance

Sex, BMI (log), HOMA-IR

2799.4 (23.4)

0.79 (0.0)

1456.2 (22.1)

0.74 (0.01)

2419.2 (9.0)

0.85 (0.00)

1396.5(10.3)

0.78 (0.0)

6. Hypertension

Sex, BMI (log), systolic BP, diastolic BP

2826.1 (22.9)

0.77 (0.0)

1452.7 (24.0)

0.74 (0.01)

2468.7 (3.1)

0.84 (0.00)

1463.3 (0.8)

0.76 (0.0)

7.Cardiometabolic

Sex, BMI (log), triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C, HOMA-IR, systolic BP, diastolic BP

2832.9 (23.9)

0.78 (0.0)

1477.2 (24.8)

0.75 (0.01)

2418.3 (10.5)

0.85 (0.00)

1414.1 (9.8)

0.79 (0.0)

8. Liver enzymes

Sex, BMI (log), ALT (log), AST (log), GGT (log)

2818.2 (23.9)

0.78 (0.0)

1466.3 (23.8)

0.74 (0.01)

2479.5 (6.5)

0.84 (0.00)

1468.5 (6.1)

0.75 (0.0)

9. Routine clinical measures

Sex, BMI (log), WCHt ratio, triglycerides(log), cholesterol, LDL-C, VLDL-C, HDL-C, HOMA-IR, systolic BP, diastolic BP, ALT (log), AST (log), GGT (log)

2851.9 (21.5)

0.79 (0.0)

1470.4 (23.9)

0.77 (0.01)

2421.0 (9.2)

0.86 (0.00)

1421.5 (10.4)

0.80 (0.0)