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Table 5 Validation for the performance of MELD-ΔLA scoring system in critically ill cirrhotic patients

From: Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients

Score systems

ICU death

28-day mortality

90-day mortality

1-year mortality

C index (95% CI)

P

AUC (95% CI)

P

AUC (95% CI)

P

AUC (95% CI)

P

Total

        

MELD-ΔLA

0.768 (0.736–0.799)

–

0.774 (0.743–0.804)

–

0.765 (0.735–0.796)

–

0.757 (0.726–0.788)

–

ACLF patients

0.725 (0.686–0.764)

–

0.718 (0.677–0.759)

–

0.711 (0.668–0.754)

–

0.702 (0.657–0.746)

–

Non-ACLF patients

0.861 (0.812–0.910)

–

0.775 (0.712–0.838)

–

0.736 (0.677–0.795)

–

0.722 (0.665–0.779)

–

SOFA

0.715 (0.675–0.755)

0.040

0.680 (0.644–0.717)

 < 0.001

0.654 (0.618–0.689)

 < 0.001

0.634 (0.598–0.670)

 < 0.001

CLIF-SOFA

0.722 (0.685–0.758)

0.047

0.759 (0.727–0.790)

0.238

0.756 (0.724–0.787)

0.430

0.734 (0.702–0.767)

0.072

MELD

0.671 (0.634–0.708)

 < 0.001

0.716 (0.682–0.750)

 < 0.001

0.718 (0.684–0.751)

 < 0.001

0.709 (0.674–0.743)

 < 0.001

Child–Pugh

0.617 (0.580–0.654)

 < 0.001

0.681 (0.646–0.716)

 < 0.001

0.696 (0.661–0.730)

 < 0.001

0.687 (0.652–0.723)

 < 0.001

Combined formula

0.789 (0.756–0.823)

0.350

0.800 (0.771–0.830)

0.233

0.785 (0.755–0.814)

0.366

0.762 (0.731–0.793)

0.824

CLIF-C ACLF (for ACLF patients)

0.652 (0.608–0.696)

 < 0.001

0.696 (0.652–0.739)

0.425

0.691 (0.647–0.736)

0.468

0.684 (0.637–0.730)

0.532

CLIF-C AD (for non-ACLF patients)

0.717 (0.619–0.816)

0.011

0.705 (0.635–0.775)

0.074

0.688 (0.625–0.751)

0.181

0.700 (0.642–0.759)

0.513

MELD-Na

0.708 (0.671–0.746)

0.017

0.744 (0.710–0.777)

0.204

0.731 (0.698–0.764)

0.143

0.712 (0.678–0.746)

0.057

Liver transplant

        

MELD-ΔLA

0.887 (0.749–0.999)

–

0.788 (0.698–0.861)

–

0.778 (0.687–0.853)

–

0.698 (0.601–0.783)

–

ACLF patients

–

–

0.896 (0.733–1.000)

–

0.757 (0.466–1.000)

–

0.779 (0.567–0.992)

–

Non-ACLF patients

–

–

0.682 (0.057–1.000)

–

0.682 (0.057–1.000)

–

0.604 (0.300–0.907)

–

SOFA

0.514 (0.361–0.667)

 < 0.001

0.571 (0.471–0.667)

0.054

0.572 (0.472–0.668)

0.025

0.518 (0.419–0.617)

0.381

CLIF-SOFA

0.577 (0.432–0.722)

0.002

0.555 (0.455–0.652)

 < 0.001

0.611 (0.511–0.704)

0.037

0.524 (0.425–0.622)

0.001

MELD

0.606 (0.353–0.859)

0.044

0.517 (0.418–0.615)

0.013

0.574 (0.474–0.670)

0.053

0.504 (0.405–0.602)

0.004

Child–Pugh

0.648 (0.463–0.833)

0.042

0.565 (0.465–0.661)

0.148

0.633 (0.534–0.724)

0.298

0.559 (0.460–0.656)

0.123

Combined formula

–

–

0.971 (0.911–1.000)

 < 0.001

0.872 (0.704–1.000)

0.281

0.818 (0.610–1.000)

0.264

CLIF-C ACLF (for ACLF patients)

–

–

0.861 (0.713–1.000)

0.650

0.610 (0.113–1.000)

0.563

0.574 (0.212–0.935)

0.269

CLIF-C AD (for non-ACLF patients)

–

–

0.674 (0.293–1.000)

0.967

0.674 (0.293–1.000)

–

0.500 (0.239–0.761)

0.438

MELD-Na

–

–

0.525 (0.181–0.868)

0.136

0.560 (0.247–0.874)

0.174

0.551 (0.324–0.778)

0.209

Non-liver transplant

        

MELD-ΔLA

0.758 (0.726–0.790)

–

0.767 (0.735–0.796)

–

0.763 (0.731–0.792)

–

0.757 (0.725–0.787)

–

ACLF patients

0.723 (0.684–0.762)

–

0.721 (0.679–0.764)

–

0.722 (0.676–0.768)

–

0.713 (0.665–0.762)

–

Non-ACLF patients

0.847 (0.794–0.900)

–

0.769 (0.703–0.836)

–

0.728 (0.664–0.791)

–

0.720 (0.659–0.782)

–

SOFA

0.716 (0.677–0.755)

0.048

0.699 (0.665–0.731)

 < 0.001

0.680 (0.646–0.713)

 < 0.001

0.666 (0.631–0.699)

 < 0.001

CLIF-SOFA

0.716 (0.679–0.753)

0.042

0.755 (0.723–0.785)

0.392

0.755 (0.723–0.785)

0.574

0.735 (0.702–0.766)

0.105

MELD

0.673 (0.636–0.710)

0.001

0.729 (0.696–0.760)

0.008

0.738 (0.706–0.769)

0.086

0.736 (0.704–0.767)

0.149

Child–Pugh

0.616 (0.579–0.653)

 < 0.001

0.682 (0.648–0.715)

 < 0.001

0.703 (0.670–0.735)

 < 0.001

0.698 (0.664–0.730)

 < 0.001

Combined formula

0.781 (0.748–0.814)

–

0.809 (0.778–0.840)

0.062

0.801 (0.771–0.832)

0.086

0.778 (0.745–0.811)

0.366

CLIF-C ACLF (for ACLF patients)

0.646 (0.603–0.689)

0.005

0.693 (0.648–0.738)

0.317

0.688 (0.641–0.736)

0.238

0.681 (0.630–0.731)

0.295

CLIF-C AD (for non-ACLF patients)

0.698 (0.596–0.800)

0.006

0.686 (0.611–0.762)

0.045

0.666 (0.597–0.736)

0.109

0.692 (0.627–0.757)

0.447

MELD-Na

0.716 (0.679–0.753)

0.090

0.771 (0.738–0.804)

0.863

0.770 (0.737–0.802)

0.763

0.760 (0.726–0.794)

0.899

  1. CI, confidence interval; AUC, area under the curve; ICU, intensive care unit; SOFA, sequential organ failure assessment; CLIF-SOFA, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; AUC, area under the curve; MELD-ΔLA, model for end-stage liver disease-lactate clearance; ACLF, acute chronic liver failure; CLIF-C ACLF, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure score; CLIF-C AD, chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation; Combined formula represent the a formula of a regression model with metric variables
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BMC Gastroenterology

ISSN: 1471-230X

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