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Table 5 Validation for the performance of MELD-ΔLA scoring system in critically ill cirrhotic patients

From: Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients

Score systems ICU death 28-day mortality 90-day mortality 1-year mortality
C index (95% CI) P AUC (95% CI) P AUC (95% CI) P AUC (95% CI) P
Total         
MELD-ΔLA 0.768 (0.736–0.799) – 0.774 (0.743–0.804) – 0.765 (0.735–0.796) – 0.757 (0.726–0.788) –
ACLF patients 0.725 (0.686–0.764) – 0.718 (0.677–0.759) – 0.711 (0.668–0.754) – 0.702 (0.657–0.746) –
Non-ACLF patients 0.861 (0.812–0.910) – 0.775 (0.712–0.838) – 0.736 (0.677–0.795) – 0.722 (0.665–0.779) –
SOFA 0.715 (0.675–0.755) 0.040 0.680 (0.644–0.717)  < 0.001 0.654 (0.618–0.689)  < 0.001 0.634 (0.598–0.670)  < 0.001
CLIF-SOFA 0.722 (0.685–0.758) 0.047 0.759 (0.727–0.790) 0.238 0.756 (0.724–0.787) 0.430 0.734 (0.702–0.767) 0.072
MELD 0.671 (0.634–0.708)  < 0.001 0.716 (0.682–0.750)  < 0.001 0.718 (0.684–0.751)  < 0.001 0.709 (0.674–0.743)  < 0.001
Child–Pugh 0.617 (0.580–0.654)  < 0.001 0.681 (0.646–0.716)  < 0.001 0.696 (0.661–0.730)  < 0.001 0.687 (0.652–0.723)  < 0.001
Combined formula 0.789 (0.756–0.823) 0.350 0.800 (0.771–0.830) 0.233 0.785 (0.755–0.814) 0.366 0.762 (0.731–0.793) 0.824
CLIF-C ACLF (for ACLF patients) 0.652 (0.608–0.696)  < 0.001 0.696 (0.652–0.739) 0.425 0.691 (0.647–0.736) 0.468 0.684 (0.637–0.730) 0.532
CLIF-C AD (for non-ACLF patients) 0.717 (0.619–0.816) 0.011 0.705 (0.635–0.775) 0.074 0.688 (0.625–0.751) 0.181 0.700 (0.642–0.759) 0.513
MELD-Na 0.708 (0.671–0.746) 0.017 0.744 (0.710–0.777) 0.204 0.731 (0.698–0.764) 0.143 0.712 (0.678–0.746) 0.057
Liver transplant         
MELD-ΔLA 0.887 (0.749–0.999) – 0.788 (0.698–0.861) – 0.778 (0.687–0.853) – 0.698 (0.601–0.783) –
ACLF patients – – 0.896 (0.733–1.000) – 0.757 (0.466–1.000) – 0.779 (0.567–0.992) –
Non-ACLF patients – – 0.682 (0.057–1.000) – 0.682 (0.057–1.000) – 0.604 (0.300–0.907) –
SOFA 0.514 (0.361–0.667)  < 0.001 0.571 (0.471–0.667) 0.054 0.572 (0.472–0.668) 0.025 0.518 (0.419–0.617) 0.381
CLIF-SOFA 0.577 (0.432–0.722) 0.002 0.555 (0.455–0.652)  < 0.001 0.611 (0.511–0.704) 0.037 0.524 (0.425–0.622) 0.001
MELD 0.606 (0.353–0.859) 0.044 0.517 (0.418–0.615) 0.013 0.574 (0.474–0.670) 0.053 0.504 (0.405–0.602) 0.004
Child–Pugh 0.648 (0.463–0.833) 0.042 0.565 (0.465–0.661) 0.148 0.633 (0.534–0.724) 0.298 0.559 (0.460–0.656) 0.123
Combined formula – – 0.971 (0.911–1.000)  < 0.001 0.872 (0.704–1.000) 0.281 0.818 (0.610–1.000) 0.264
CLIF-C ACLF (for ACLF patients) – – 0.861 (0.713–1.000) 0.650 0.610 (0.113–1.000) 0.563 0.574 (0.212–0.935) 0.269
CLIF-C AD (for non-ACLF patients) – – 0.674 (0.293–1.000) 0.967 0.674 (0.293–1.000) – 0.500 (0.239–0.761) 0.438
MELD-Na – – 0.525 (0.181–0.868) 0.136 0.560 (0.247–0.874) 0.174 0.551 (0.324–0.778) 0.209
Non-liver transplant         
MELD-ΔLA 0.758 (0.726–0.790) – 0.767 (0.735–0.796) – 0.763 (0.731–0.792) – 0.757 (0.725–0.787) –
ACLF patients 0.723 (0.684–0.762) – 0.721 (0.679–0.764) – 0.722 (0.676–0.768) – 0.713 (0.665–0.762) –
Non-ACLF patients 0.847 (0.794–0.900) – 0.769 (0.703–0.836) – 0.728 (0.664–0.791) – 0.720 (0.659–0.782) –
SOFA 0.716 (0.677–0.755) 0.048 0.699 (0.665–0.731)  < 0.001 0.680 (0.646–0.713)  < 0.001 0.666 (0.631–0.699)  < 0.001
CLIF-SOFA 0.716 (0.679–0.753) 0.042 0.755 (0.723–0.785) 0.392 0.755 (0.723–0.785) 0.574 0.735 (0.702–0.766) 0.105
MELD 0.673 (0.636–0.710) 0.001 0.729 (0.696–0.760) 0.008 0.738 (0.706–0.769) 0.086 0.736 (0.704–0.767) 0.149
Child–Pugh 0.616 (0.579–0.653)  < 0.001 0.682 (0.648–0.715)  < 0.001 0.703 (0.670–0.735)  < 0.001 0.698 (0.664–0.730)  < 0.001
Combined formula 0.781 (0.748–0.814) – 0.809 (0.778–0.840) 0.062 0.801 (0.771–0.832) 0.086 0.778 (0.745–0.811) 0.366
CLIF-C ACLF (for ACLF patients) 0.646 (0.603–0.689) 0.005 0.693 (0.648–0.738) 0.317 0.688 (0.641–0.736) 0.238 0.681 (0.630–0.731) 0.295
CLIF-C AD (for non-ACLF patients) 0.698 (0.596–0.800) 0.006 0.686 (0.611–0.762) 0.045 0.666 (0.597–0.736) 0.109 0.692 (0.627–0.757) 0.447
MELD-Na 0.716 (0.679–0.753) 0.090 0.771 (0.738–0.804) 0.863 0.770 (0.737–0.802) 0.763 0.760 (0.726–0.794) 0.899
  1. CI, confidence interval; AUC, area under the curve; ICU, intensive care unit; SOFA, sequential organ failure assessment; CLIF-SOFA, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; AUC, area under the curve; MELD-ΔLA, model for end-stage liver disease-lactate clearance; ACLF, acute chronic liver failure; CLIF-C ACLF, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure score; CLIF-C AD, chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation; Combined formula represent the a formula of a regression model with metric variables
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BMC Gastroenterology

ISSN: 1471-230X

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