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Table 4 Performance of sequential modelling strategy at different sensitivity thresholds for CRC and HRA detection

From: Multivariable models for advanced colorectal neoplasms in screen-eligible individuals at low-to-moderate risk of colorectal cancer: towards improving colonoscopy prioritization

Performance characteristic Sensitivity of CRC detection in complete cohort (Model #1) Sensitivity of CRC or HRA detection in residual cohort (Model #2) (%)
100% 99% 95%
% missed CRC 0 0 0.58 80
% missed HRA 6.2 7.2 13.7  
% colonoscopies avoided 16.4 18.7 31.3  
% missed CRC 0 0.58 0.58 70
% missed HRA 9.5 10.5 20.7  
% colonoscopies avoided 23.8 25.5 40.9  
% missed CRC 0 0.58 0.58 60
% missed HRA 12.7 14.4 27.6  
% colonoscopies avoided 27.5 30.5 48.7  
  1. Interpretation (100% Column, 80% row): At minimum probability cut points to permit 100% CRC detection in Model #1 and 80 CRC/HRA detection in Model #2, application of the sequential modelling strategy predicts a miss rate of 0% for CRC and 6.2% for HRA and reduces colonoscopy burden by 16.4%