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Table 2 Final model variables and model performance characteristics in complete study cohort

From: Multivariable models for advanced colorectal neoplasms in screen-eligible individuals at low-to-moderate risk of colorectal cancer: towards improving colonoscopy prioritization

Variable Estimate (SE) Odds Ratio (95% CI)
CRC model (Model #1)   
Colonoscopy indication—signs/symptoms (y/n) 0.665 (0.286) 1.94 (1.11–3.40)
Colonoscopy indication—history of polyps (y/n) 0.687 (0.277) 1.99 (1.16–3.42)
Colonoscopy indication—rectal bleeding (y/n) 0.773 (0.232) 2.17 (1.38–3.41)
Colonoscopy indication—anemia (y/n) 0.578 (0.257) 1.78 (1.08–2.95)
Age (years) 0.0432 (0.00926) 1.04 (1.03–1.06)
Charlson-Deyo co-morbidity score (0–1 vs. 2 +) 2.33 (0.224) 10.3 (6.65–16.0)
History of non-CRC malignancy (y/n) 2.73 (0.245) 15.3 (9.45—24.7)
Complete colonoscopy within past 10 years (y/n) − 1.66 (0.256) 0.191 (0.116–0.315)
Residual CRC or HRA model (Model #2)*
Colonoscopy indication—CRC in FDR (y/n) 0.325 (0.114) 1.38 (1.11–1.73)
Colonoscopy Indication—history of polyps (y/n) 0.311 (0.158) 1.36 (1.001—1.86)
Age (years) 0.0384 (0.00783) 1.04 (1.02–1.06)
Sex (M/F) − 0.470 (0.105) 0.625 (0.509–0.767)
# Years since any lower endoscopy   
 1–2 − 0.0762 (0.219) 0.927 (0.604–1.42)
 2–4 − 1.09 (0.216) 0.336 (0.22–0.513)
 4–6 − 0.766 (0.168) 0.465 (0.334–0.646)
 6–8 − 0.541 (0.207) 0.582 (0.388–0.873)
 8–10 − 0.0903 (0.258) 0.914 (0.552–1.51)
 > 10 or none Ref Ref
Polyp treatment within past 10 years (y/n) 0.794 (0.157) 2.21 (1.63–3.01)
  1. c-statistic 0.957
  2. Goodness of fit p-value 0.527
  3. c-statistic 0.662
  4. Goodness of fit p-value 0.792
  5. SE standard error, CI  confidence interval
  6. *Based on model of persons who fell below lowest probability cut point associated with 100% CRC sensitivity in Model #1