Table 2 Final model variables and model performance characteristics in complete study cohort

CRC model (Model #1)

Colonoscopy indication—signs/symptoms (y/n)

0.665 (0.286)

1.94 (1.11–3.40)

Colonoscopy indication—history of polyps (y/n)

0.687 (0.277)

1.99 (1.16–3.42)

Colonoscopy indication—rectal bleeding (y/n)

0.773 (0.232)

2.17 (1.38–3.41)

Colonoscopy indication—anemia (y/n)

0.578 (0.257)

1.78 (1.08–2.95)

Age (years)

0.0432 (0.00926)

1.04 (1.03–1.06)

Charlson-Deyo co-morbidity score (0–1 vs. 2 +)

2.33 (0.224)

10.3 (6.65–16.0)

History of non-CRC malignancy (y/n)

2.73 (0.245)

15.3 (9.45—24.7)

Complete colonoscopy within past 10 years (y/n)

− 1.66 (0.256)

0.191 (0.116–0.315)

Residual CRC or HRA model (Model #2)*

Colonoscopy indication—CRC in FDR (y/n)

0.325 (0.114)

1.38 (1.11–1.73)

Colonoscopy Indication—history of polyps (y/n)

0.311 (0.158)

1.36 (1.001—1.86)

Age (years)

0.0384 (0.00783)

1.04 (1.02–1.06)

Sex (M/F)

− 0.470 (0.105)

0.625 (0.509–0.767)

# Years since any lower endoscopy

 1–2

− 0.0762 (0.219)

0.927 (0.604–1.42)

 2–4

− 1.09 (0.216)

0.336 (0.22–0.513)

 4–6

− 0.766 (0.168)

0.465 (0.334–0.646)

 6–8

− 0.541 (0.207)

0.582 (0.388–0.873)

 8–10

− 0.0903 (0.258)

0.914 (0.552–1.51)

 > 10 or none

Ref

Ref

Polyp treatment within past 10 years (y/n)

0.794 (0.157)

2.21 (1.63–3.01)