Table 1 Variable completeness and univariable associations with colorectal cancer and polyps

 Sex

100

  Male (baseline)

–

46.74%

(136,518/292,059)

–

(---)

–

–

  Female

–

53.26%

(155,541/292,059)

0.655

(0.609–0.706)

0.025

0.000*

 Age at Latest FOBT (continuous)

100

Mean 66.43 (SD 4.47)

1.025

(1.017–1.033)

0.004

0.000*

Latest FOBT Result (initially derived from BCSS)

100

(292,059/292,059)

 BCSP FOB test normal (baseline)

97.82

(285,697/292,059)

97.82%

(285,697/292,059)

–

(---)

–

–

 BCSP FOB test abnormal

2.18

(6362/292,059)

2.18%

(6362/292,059)

55.936

(51.988–60.183)

2.089

0.000*

 Previous Positive BCSP FOBTs (continuous)

(Recorded if observed)

0 (99.47%) 1 (0.51%) 2 (0.02%) 3 (0.00068%)

(290,515/292,059) (1488/292,059) (54/292,059) (2/292,059)

5.028

(4.180–6.047)

0.473

0.000*

 Previous Negative BCSP FOBTs (continuous)

(Recorded if observed)

0 (60.44%) 1 (31.18%) 2 (8.03%) 3 (0.34%) 4 (0.0027%)

(176,523/292,059) (91,076/292,059) (23,465/292,059) (987/292,059) (8/292,059)

0.769

(0.720–0.821)

0.026

0.000*

 Previously screened with a BCSP FOBT

(Recorded if observed)

39.94% with 60.06% without

(116,641/292,059) (175,418/292,059)

0.783

(0.723–0.847)

0.032

0.000*

 Alcohol (units per week) (continuous)

78.00

(227,792/292,059)

Mean 9.49 (SD 12.27)

1.010

(1.008–1.011)

0.001

0.000*

Smoking Status

99.44

(290,429/292,059)

 Never-Smoked

57.48

(167,880/292,059)

57.80%

(167,880/290,429)

 Ex-Smoker

33.32

(97,310/292,059)

33.51%

(97,310/290,429)

1.532

(1.417–1.656)

0.061

0.000*

 Current Smoker

8.64

(25,239/292,059)

8.69%

(25,239/290,429)

1.619

(1.437–1.824)

0.099

0.000*

 BMI (continuous)

95.85

(279,927/292,059)

Mean 27.48 (SD 5.01)

1.029

(1.022–1.036)

0.004

0.000*

 Primary care FOBT

(Recorded if observed)

0.01% with 99.99% without

(32/292,059) (292,027/292,059)

2.868

(0.404–20.369)

2.869

0.292

 Hb g/dL (continuous) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

44.51

(129,996/292,059)

Mean 13.92 (SD 1.30)

0.990

(0.953–1.029)

0.019

0.606

 Hb < 11 g/dL (reference category ≥11 g/dL) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

44.51

(129,996/292,059)

1.50% < 11 g/dL 98.50% ≥11 g/dL

(1947/129,996) (128,049/129,996)

2.231

(1.679–2.966)

0.324

0.000*

 Mean Cell Volume fL (continuous) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

44.33

(129,481/292,059)

Mean 91.11 (SD 5.08)

0.996

(0.986–1.005)

0.005

0.382

 Mean Cell Volume < 80 fL (reference category ≥80 fL) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

44.33

(129,481/292,059)

1.60% < 80 fL 98.40% ≥80 fL

(2073/129,481) (127,408/129,481)

2.419

(1.856–3.151)

0.326

0.000*

 Ferritin 15 μg/L (continuous) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

8.59

(25,082/292,059)

Mean 127.07 (SD 201.66)

0.999

(0.998–1.000)

0.000

0.069

 Ferritin < 15 μg/L (reference category ≥15 μg/L) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

8.59

(25,082/292,059)

4.99% < 15 μg/L 95.01% ≥15 μg/L

(1252/25,082) (23,830/25,082)

2.054

(1.434–2.943)

0.377

0.000*

 Platelet Count ×  10⁹/L (continuous) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

44.40

(129,685/292,059)

Mean 245.61 (SD 66.00)

1.000

(0.999–1.001)

0.000

0.691

 Platelet Count > 400 × 10⁹/L (reference category ≤400 10⁹/L) within 365 days prior to the latest FOBT

44.40

(129,685/292,059)

2.13% > 400 × 10⁹/L) 97.87% ≤400 10⁹/L

(2764/129,685) (126,921/129,685)

1.155

(0.837–1.594)

0.190

0.379

 GP has ordered a blood test 365 days prior to their latest BCSP FOBT

(Recorded if observed)

44.72% with 55.28% without

(130,611/292,059) (161,448/292,059)

1.441

(1.339–1.550)

0.054

0.000*

 Previous polyps diagnosed

(Recorded if observed)

2.49% with 97.51% without

(7269/292,059) (284,790/292,059)

3.181

(2.767–3.658)

0.226

0.000*

 Diabetes

(Recorded if observed)

11.05% with 88.95% without

(32,272/292,059) (259,787/292,059)

1.470

(1.329–1.627)

0.076

0.000*

 Crohn’s disease

(Recorded if observed)

0.30% with 99.70% without

(884/292,059) (291,175/292,059)

1.038

(0.539–1.997)

0.346

0.911

 Ulcerative Colitis

(Recorded if observed)

0.61% with 99.39% without

(1796/292,059) (290,263/292,059)

1.686

(1.177–2.416)

0.309

0.004*

 Irritable Bowel Syndrome

(Recorded if observed)

9.28% with 90.72% without

(27,103/292,059) (264,956/292,059)

1.141

(1.013–1.286)

0.069

0.030*

 Diverticulitis

(Recorded if observed)

6.37% with 93.63% without

(18,606/292,059) (273,453/292,059)

1.226

(1.069–1.406)

0.086

0.004*

 Venous Thromboembolism

(Recorded if observed)

0.31% with 99.69% without

(916/292,059) (291,143/292,059)

1.421

(0.824–2.451)

0.395

0.206

 Family History of Gastro-Intestinal Cancer

(Recorded if observed)

1.51% with 98.49% without

(4423/292,059) (287,636/292,059)

1.591

(1.251, 2.023)

0.195

0.000*

 Constipation

(Recorded if observed)

1.46% with, 98.54% without

(4260/292,059) (287,799/292,059)

1.654

(1.305–2.097)

0.200

0.000*

 Diarrhoea

(Recorded if observed)

2.01% with, 97.99% without

(5867/292,059) (286,192/292,059)

1.779

(1.464–2.161)

0.177

0.000*

 Loss of Appetite

(Recorded if observed)

0.04% with, 99.96% without

(117/292,059) (291,942/292,059)

2.614

(0.843–8.109)

1.510

0.096

 Flatulence

(Recorded if observed)

0.17% with 99.83% without

(498/292,059) (291,561/292,059)

2.481

(1.439–4.278)

0.670

0.001*

 Tiredness

(Recorded if observed)

2.46% with 97.54% without

(7173/292,059) (284,886/292,059)

1.358

(1.108–1.665)

0.141

0.003*

 Weight Loss

(Recorded if observed)

0.36% with 99.64% without

(1057/292,059) (291,002/292,059)

1.705

(1.073–2.710)

0.403

0.024*

 Change in Bowel Habit

(Recorded if observed)

0.57% with, 99.43% without

(1655/292,059) (290,404/292,059)

2.610

(1.924–3.539)

0.406

0.000*

 Abdominal Pain†

(Recorded if observed)

7.12% with, 92.88% without

(20,790/292,059) (271,269/292,059)

1.425

(1.261–1.610)

0.089

0.000*

 Abdominal Pain

(Recorded if observed)

4.86% with 95.14% without

(14,206/292,059) (277,853/292,059)

1.424

(1.232–1.646)

0.105

0.000*

 Abdominal Mass

(Recorded if observed)

0.06% with 99.94% without

(165/292,059) (291,894/292,059)

1.258

(0.314–5.032)

0.890

0.746

 Rectal Bleeding/melaena

(Recorded if observed)

0.92% with 99.08% without

(2694/292,059) (289,365/292,059)

3.118

(2.504–3.884)

0.349

0.000*

 Antispasmodic drug prescription

(Recorded if observed)

3.31% with 96.69% without

(9661/292,0590 (282,398/292,059)

1.450

(1.221–1.721)

0.127

0.000*

 Anti-motility drug prescription

(Recorded if observed)

1.24% with 98.76% without

(3613/292,0590 (288,446/292,059)

1.535

(1.176–2.005)

0.209

0.002*

 Laxative Drug

(Recorded if observed)

7.96% with 92.04% without

(23,234/292,059) (268,825/292,059)

1.390

(1.235–1.564)

0.084

0.000*