Table 4 Cut-off values of each scoring system
Scoring system | Cut-off value | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | Specificity, % (95% CI) | Low risk (%) | High risk (%) | P-value | Odds ratio (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIMS65 | |||||||
Mortality | 2 | 88.2 (63.6–98.5) | 72.7 (68.6–76.6) | 0.6 | 10 | < 0.001 | 20.0 (4.5–88.6) |
Serious clinical outcomes | 2 | 51.5 (42.7–60.2) | 78.6 (74.1–82.6) | 18 | 46 | < 0.001 | 3.8 (2.5–5.9) |
Rebleeding | 2 | 41.5 (29.4–54.4) | 72.5 (68.1–76.6) | 10.5 | 18 | 0.02 | 1.8 (1.1–3.2) |
ICU admission | 2 | 62.8 (51.7–73.0) | 77.5 (73.2–81.3) | 8.8 | 36 | < 0.001 | 5.8 (3.5–9.5) |
Transfusion requirement | 1 | 35.5 (30.8–40.4) | 92.2 (85.7–96.4) | 62.1 | 84.6 | < 0.001 | 3.3 (2.1–5.1) |
Pre-endoscopic RS | |||||||
Mortality | 4 | 88.2 (63.6–98.5) | 56.4 (51.9–60.8) | 0.6 | 4.8 | 0.01 | 3.3 (2.1–5.2) |
Serious clinical outcomes | 4 | 63.4 (54.7–71.6) | 61.4 (56.3–66.3) | 14.4 | 32.5 | < 0.001 | 2.8 (1.7–4.5) |
Rebleeding | 3 | 76.9 (64.8–86.5) | 36.9 (32.4–41.6) | 8.3 | 15.1 | 0.03 | 1.9 (1.1–3.5) |
ICU admission | 4 | 72.1 (61.4–81.2) | 60.3 (55.5–65.0) | 7.2 | 22 | < 0.001 | 3.6 (1.9–6.7) |
Transfusion requirement | 3 | 71.3 (66.6–75.7) | 57.4 (47.8–66.6) | 63.3 | 85.2 | < 0.001 | 3.3 (2.1–5.1) |
Rockall Score | |||||||
Mortality | 7 | 76.5 (50.1–93.2) | 67.1 (62.7–71.2) | 1.2 | 7.4 | < 0.001 | 6.6 (2.1–20.6) |
Serious clinical outcomes | 6 | 76.1 (68.0–83.1) | 54.2 (49.1–59.3) | 13.5 | 37.1 | < 0.001 | 3.7 (2.4–5.9) |
Rebleeding | 6 | 72.3 (59.8–82.7) | 48.9 (44.3–53.7) | 7.6 | 17.1 | < 0.001 | 2.5 (1.4–4.4) |
ICU admission | 7 | 60.5 (49.3–70.8) | 70.9 (66.3–75.2) | 10.1 | 29.5 | < 0.001 | 3.7 (2.3–6.0) |
Transfusion requirement | 5 | 75.8 (71.3–80.0) | 60.8 (51.3–69.8) | 57.8 | 87 | < 0.001 | 4.8 (3.1–7.5) |
GBS | |||||||
Mortality | 11 | 82.4 (56.6–96.2) | 53.3 (48.8–57.8) | 1.1 | 5.7 | 0.01 | 5.33 (1.5–18.7) |
Serious clinical outcomes | 10 | 75.4 (67.2–82.4) | 49.5 (44.3–54.6) | 15 | 34.6 | < 0.001 | 3.00 (1.93–4.6) |
Rebleeding | 10 | 67.7 (54.9–78.8) | 44.5 (39.8–49.3) | 9.5 | 15.1 | 0.08a | 1.6 (0.9–2.9) |
ICU admission | 11 | 75.6 (65.1–84.2) | 57.8 (52.9–62.5) | 7.9 | 26.5 | < 0.001 | 4.2 (2.4–7.1) |
Transfusion requirement | 8 | 82.4 (78.3–86.0) | 71.3 (62.1–79.4) | 46.1 | 90.8 | < 0.001 | 11.6 (7.1–18.7) |