Fig. 2
From: Interactive decision support for esophageal adenocarcinoma screening and surveillance
Metrics describing estimated 10-year risk in EAC cases and controls based on data from six population-based studies in the BEACON consortium. The bottom panel shows the distribution of 10-year risk estimates by case status. The solid vertical lines represent examples of an individual for whom current ACG guidelines suggest that screening endoscopy be considered. The first (10-year risk = 0.66/1000) is for a 40-year-old male with weekly-daily reflux and two additional risk factors (white and BMI > 25). The second (10-year risk = 0.97/1000) is for a 50-year-old male with weekly-daily reflux and with two different additional risk factors (age > 50 and positive cigarette smoking history). The top, second and third panels show how specificity, sensitivity and positive predictive value (ppv), respectively, vary according to possible thresholds for further action