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Table 3 Predictors of development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with NAFLD

From: Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common liver-related complication in patients with histopathologically-confirmed NAFLD in Japan

Factor

Category

Univariate

(95% CI)

P value*

Multivariate

(95% CI)

P value*

Hazard ratio

Hazard ratio

Demographic data

 Gender

Male

1

     

Female

0.24

(0.03–1.97)

0.186

   

 Age

< 70 y

1

  

1

  

≥70 y

18.6

(3.74–92.6)

< 0.001

9.54

(1.63–55.9)

0.012

 Body mass index

< 25.0 kg/m2

1

     

≥25.0 kg/m2

0.46

(0.11–1.88)

0.276

   

 Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Absence

1

     

Presence

3.64

(0.95–14.0)

0.060

   

 Hypertension

Absence

1

     

Presence

1.06

(0.28–3.95)

0.932

   

 Hyperlipidemia

Absence

1

     

Presence

0.36

(0.05–2.91)

0.339

   

Histological findings

 Steatosis

5–33%

1

     

> 33%

0.40

(0.10–1.63)

0.201

   

 Lobular inflammation

< 2 foci per 200× field

1

     

≥2 foci per 200× field

0.31

(0.04–2.50)

0.272

   

 Ballooning

None / Few cells

1

     

Many cells

0.47

(0.05–3.84)

0.482

   

 Stage

0–3

1

  

1

  

4

33.9

(7.14–161)

< 0.001

7.14

(1.29–39.5)

0.024

 NAFLD activity score

< 5

1

     

≥5

0.19

(0.02–1.50)

0.114

   

 Diagnosis according to FLIP algorithm

non-NASH

1

     

NASH

1.34

(0.17–10.8)

0.784

   

Laboratory data

 Serum aspartate aminotransferase

< 2 × ULN IU/l

1

     

≥2 × ULN IU/l

2.74

(0.73–10.2)

0.134

   

 Serum alanine aminotransferase

< 2 × ULN IU/l

1

     

≥2 × ULN IU/l

0.85

(0.22–3.22)

0.810

   

 Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase

< 110 IU/l

1

     

≥110 IU/l

1.29

(0.34–4.86)

0.706

   

 Platelet count

< 200 × 103/mm3

1

  

1

  

≥200 × 103/mm3

0.06

(0.01–0.50)

0.009

0.14

(0.01–1.33)

0.086

 Fasting plasma glucose

< 110 mg/dl

1

     

≥110 mg/dl

3.61

(0.85–15.3)

0.081

   

 HbA1c

< 5.8%

1

     

≥5.8%

56.2

(0.01–634,349)

0.397

   

 Uric acid

< 7.1 mg/dl

1

     

≥7.1 mg/dl

0.03

(0.00–21.0)

0.298

   

 Total cholesterol

< 200 mg/dl

1

     

≥200 mg/dl

0.18

(0.04–0.87)

0.033

   

 Triglycerides

< 150 mg/dl

1

     

≥150 mg/dl

0.46

(0.09–2.28)

0.342

   

 High-density lipoprotein cholesterol

< 41 mg/dl

1

     

≥41 mg/dl

0.58

(0.15–2.25)

0.428

   

 Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol

< 136 mg/dl

1

     

≥136 mg/dl

0.24

(0.03–2.06)

0.191

   

 Serum ferritin

< 81 μg/l

1

     

≥81 μg/l

0.71

(0.14–3.61)

0.674

   

 High sensitive C-reactive protein

< 0.2 mg/dl

1

     

≥0.2 mg/dl

1.02

(0.11–10.0)

0.984

   

 Alpha-fetoprotein

< 5 μg/l

1

  

1

  

≥5 μg/l

7.15

(1.44–35.6)

0.016

4.44

(0.84–23.4)

0.079

 PIVKA-II

< 21 AU/l

1

     

≥21 AU/l

0.47

(0.06–4.05)

0.495

   
  1. *Significance was determined using a Cox proportional hazard model. CI confidence interval, ULN upper limit of normal