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Table 2 Adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) and score contribution of (A) use of corticosteroids, (B) start of azathioprine, (C) start of anti-TNF- α drugs, (D) need of surgery

From: A risk score system to timely manage treatment in Crohn’s disease: a cohort study

  IRR 95% CI p score
A. Use of corticosteroids
 No or CD intestinal lesions < 20 cm and no complications (ref) 1     0
 CD complications at SICUS 1.86 1.04 3.34 0.04 1
 CD intestinal lesions > 20 cm and no complications at SICUS 3.38 1.80 6.35 < 0.01 3
 Presence of colon-ileal reflux at SICUS (ref) 1     0
 Absence of colon-ileal reflux at SICUS 1.54 1.00 2.37 0.05 1
 Age at diagnosis ≥40 years (ref) 1     0
 Age at diagnosis < 40 years 1.83 1.04 3.24 0.04 1
 B1 or B3 disease behavior (ref) 1     0
 B2 disease behavior 2.23 1.26 3.93 0.01 2
 Absence of specific symptoms at clinical assessment (ref) 1     0
 Presence of specific symptoms at clinical assessment 1.93 1.36 2.73 < 0.01 2
B. Start of azathioprine
 Male (ref) 1     0
 Female 2.08 1.19 3.64 0.01 1
 BMI > 25 (ref) 1     0
 BMI < 21 4.10 1.95 8.61 < 0.01 2
 BMI 21–25 2.13 1.04 4.33 0.04 1
 CDAI < 50 (ref) 1     0
 CDAI ≥50 1.82 1.13 2.90 0.013 1
C. Start of anti-TNF-α drugs
 Absence of CD intestinal lesions or complications at SICUS (ref) 1     0
 CD intestinal lesions > 20 cm and no complications at SICUS 5.72 1.88 17.40 < 0.01 2
 CD complications at SICUS 2.34 0.81 6.73 0.12 1
 Negative markers of inflammation (ref) 1     0
 Positive markers of inflammation 2.63 1.45 4.78 < 0.01 1
 Absence of specific symptoms at clinical assessment (ref) 1     0
 Presence of specific symptoms at clinical assessment 2.52 1.46 4.34 < 0.01 1
D. Need of surgery
 No previous surgery 6.40 2.01 20.31 < 0.01 2
 Previous surgery and type of ileocolonic anastomosis (ICA)
• latero-lateral ICA (ref) 1     0
• termino-terminal ICA 3.90 0.62 24.69 0.15 2
 No or CD intestinal lesions and no complications (ref) 1     0
 CD intestinal lesions > 0.5 cm and complications at SICUS 10.63 3.04 37.11 < 0.01 3
 Corticosteroid at first flare (ref) 1     0
 No corticosteroid at first flare 2.32 1.29 4.17 0.01 1
 Absence of specific symptoms at clinical assessment (ref) 1     0
 Presence of specific symptoms at clinical assessment 3.75 2.01 7.01 < 0.01 2
 No current use of corticosteroid (ref) 1     0
 Current use of corticosteroid 3.60 1.99 6.51 < 0.01 2
 Negative markers of inflammation (ref) 1     0
 Positive markers of inflammation 2.31 1.15 4.66 0.02 1
  1. ICA: ileo-colonic anastomosis, IRR: incidence rate ratio
  2. IRR and score estimates were obtained by Poisson models based on clinical assessment findings; models evaluated the occurrence of each specified outcome within the subsequent clinical assessment; 95% confidence intervals and p-values were calculated taking into account that clinical assessments were clustered within patient; selected predictors for each outcome were obtained starting from a multiple model including all the variables described in the method section and then excluding at each step that with the highest p-value > 0.15 (from log-likelihood ratio test). Final models include only predictors with a log-likelihood ratio test p < 0.15; IRR > 1 indicate an increased risk of having the specified outcome compared to the reference group