Fig. 2

a Estimated cumulative probability of using corticosteroids by month after referral visit for patients with different total score. A patient scoring 1 (e.g., CD complications at SICUS, age at diagnosis ≥40 years, B1 behavior, absence of specific symptoms, presence of colon-ileal reflux at SICUS) has 1.6% and 3.1% probability of using corticosteroids at 6 months and at 1 year since the referral visit, respectively; a patient scoring 9 (e.g., CD intestinal lesions > 20 cm and no complications at SICUS, age at diagnosis < 40 years, B2 behavior, presence of specific symptoms, absence of colon-ileal reflux at SICUS) has 17.6% and 32.2% probability of using corticosteroids at 6 months and at 1 year since the referral visit, respectively. Dotted line: score 1; continuous line: score 9. b Observed vs model-predicted at one year since the referral visit of using corticosteroids by groups of score