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Table 2 Bayesian Posterior Probabilities that the Prevalence of Pathologic Esophageal Reflux During PPI Treatment is Greater than the Prevalence of False-Positive Values for Pathologic Integrated Esophageal Acidity and Time Esophageal pH < 4.

From: Time esophageal pH < 4 overestimates the prevalence of pathologic esophageal reflux in subjects with gastroesophageal reflux disease treated with proton pump inhibitors

Period Integrated Esophageal Acidity Time Esophageal pH < 4
  Probability that Observed Prevalence of Pathologic Esophageal Reflux is Greater than Prevalence of False-Positive Values
24-hour 0.139 0.985
Nocturnal 0.066 0.999
  1. Bayesian posterior probabilities were calculated using the values for the prevalence of false-positive values given in Table 1, the combined prevalence of pathologic esophageal reflux calculated from the index and 3rd studies, and a flat prior probability [8]. The calculations were for values of prevalence from 0 to 1.0 in steps of 0.05. The flat prior probability considered all prevalence values from 0 to 1.0 to be equally probable.