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Table 3 Predictive values of oriented screening strategies

From: Prevalence of liver fibrosis and risk factors in a general population using non-invasive biomarkers (FibroTest)

Strategy Number subjects Presumed fibrosis Confirmed fibrosis
Prevalence fibrosis 1 7463 209 (2.8%) 50 (0.7-1.4%)
Metabolic factors oriented    
Predictive value    
At least one metabolic factor 3990 163 (4.1%) 40 (1.0%)
None 3473 46 (1.3%) 10 (0.3%)
Odds ratio 7463 3.2 (2.3-4.5) 3.4 (1.7-7.5)
Area under ROC curve 4854 0.69(0.64-0.73) 0.71 (0.59-0.80)
Alcohol-oriented per self-    
reported consumption    
Predictive value    
>10 g female/20 g male 1686 52 (3.1%) 15 (0.9%)
<= 10 g female/<= 20 g male 5770 157 (2.7%) 35 (0.6%)
Odds Ratio 7456 1.1 (0.8-1.6) 1.5 (0.8-2.8)
Area under ROC curve 7456 0.55(0.51-0.59) 0.52 (0.43-0.60)
CDT oriented    
Predictive value    
CDT>1.6 348 45 (12.9%) 22 (6.3%)
CDT<= 1.6 749 29 (3.9%) 8 (1.1%)
Odds Ratio 1097 3.7 (2.2-6.2) 6.1 (2.6-15.4)
Area under ROC curve 1097 0.72(0.64-0.78) 0.75 (0.67-0.86)
Hepatitis Virus-oriented 2    
Predictive value    
HBsAg or HCV antibody 36 5 (13.9%) 3 (8.3%)
HBsAg and HCV negative or not done at baseline 7427 204 (2.7%) 47 (0.6%)
Odds ratio 7463 5.9 (1.9-15.6) 15.3 (3.4-50.9)
Transaminases- oriented    
Predictive value    
ALT >= 50 IU/L 513 53 (10.3%) 17 (3.3%)
ALT < 50 IU/L 6950 156 (2.2%) 33 (0.5%)
Odds ratio 7463 5.0 (3.6-7.0) 7.2 (3.8-13.4)
Area under ROC curve 7463 0.72(0.68-0.75) 0.78 (0.72-0.83)
Age-oriented    
Predictive value    
Age > 60 years 2960 156 (5.3%) 42 (1.4%)
Age <= 60 years 4503 53 (1.2%) 8 (0.2%)
Odds ratio 7463 4.7 (3.4-6.5) 8.3 (3.8-19.5)
Area under ROC curve 7463 0.75(0.72-0.78) 0.79 (0.71-0.84)
Gender-oriented    
Male 4113 189 (4.6%) 47 (1.1%)
Female 3350 20 (0.6%) 3 (0.1%)
Odds ratio 7463 8.0 (5.0-13.1) 12.0 (4.0-54.1)
  1. 1 Upper estimated prevalence assuming that the prevalence of advanced fibrosis would be the same in the population of patients not reinvestigated. Lower prevalence assuming that no advanced fibrosis was present among patients not reinvestigated.
  2. 2 This strategy was the standard in the screening centers. Two cases with positive HBsAg detected during reinvestigations of advanced fibrosis were not taken into account. There was one coinfection HCV-HBV.