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Table 3 Predictive values of oriented screening strategies

From: Prevalence of liver fibrosis and risk factors in a general population using non-invasive biomarkers (FibroTest)

Strategy

Number subjects

Presumed fibrosis

Confirmed fibrosis

Prevalence fibrosis 1

7463

209 (2.8%)

50 (0.7-1.4%)

Metabolic factors oriented

   

Predictive value

   

At least one metabolic factor

3990

163 (4.1%)

40 (1.0%)

None

3473

46 (1.3%)

10 (0.3%)

Odds ratio

7463

3.2 (2.3-4.5)

3.4 (1.7-7.5)

Area under ROC curve

4854

0.69(0.64-0.73)

0.71 (0.59-0.80)

Alcohol-oriented per self-

   

reported consumption

   

Predictive value

   

>10 g female/20 g male

1686

52 (3.1%)

15 (0.9%)

<= 10 g female/<= 20 g male

5770

157 (2.7%)

35 (0.6%)

Odds Ratio

7456

1.1 (0.8-1.6)

1.5 (0.8-2.8)

Area under ROC curve

7456

0.55(0.51-0.59)

0.52 (0.43-0.60)

CDT oriented

   

Predictive value

   

CDT>1.6

348

45 (12.9%)

22 (6.3%)

CDT<= 1.6

749

29 (3.9%)

8 (1.1%)

Odds Ratio

1097

3.7 (2.2-6.2)

6.1 (2.6-15.4)

Area under ROC curve

1097

0.72(0.64-0.78)

0.75 (0.67-0.86)

Hepatitis Virus-oriented 2

   

Predictive value

   

HBsAg or HCV antibody

36

5 (13.9%)

3 (8.3%)

HBsAg and HCV negative or not done at baseline

7427

204 (2.7%)

47 (0.6%)

Odds ratio

7463

5.9 (1.9-15.6)

15.3 (3.4-50.9)

Transaminases- oriented

   

Predictive value

   

ALT >= 50 IU/L

513

53 (10.3%)

17 (3.3%)

ALT < 50 IU/L

6950

156 (2.2%)

33 (0.5%)

Odds ratio

7463

5.0 (3.6-7.0)

7.2 (3.8-13.4)

Area under ROC curve

7463

0.72(0.68-0.75)

0.78 (0.72-0.83)

Age-oriented

   

Predictive value

   

Age > 60 years

2960

156 (5.3%)

42 (1.4%)

Age <= 60 years

4503

53 (1.2%)

8 (0.2%)

Odds ratio

7463

4.7 (3.4-6.5)

8.3 (3.8-19.5)

Area under ROC curve

7463

0.75(0.72-0.78)

0.79 (0.71-0.84)

Gender-oriented

   

Male

4113

189 (4.6%)

47 (1.1%)

Female

3350

20 (0.6%)

3 (0.1%)

Odds ratio

7463

8.0 (5.0-13.1)

12.0 (4.0-54.1)

  1. 1 Upper estimated prevalence assuming that the prevalence of advanced fibrosis would be the same in the population of patients not reinvestigated. Lower prevalence assuming that no advanced fibrosis was present among patients not reinvestigated.
  2. 2 This strategy was the standard in the screening centers. Two cases with positive HBsAg detected during reinvestigations of advanced fibrosis were not taken into account. There was one coinfection HCV-HBV.